Look back just 20 years in time. The year is 1991. There is no Google, no lap-tops or indeed many other things that now look like they’ve been here forever. Cell phones are only for the happy few and the World Wide Web, or what we now call 'the internet’, has only just been launched in August of this year. Then, in the twenty years from 1990 to 2010, worldwide mobile phone subscriptions grew from 12.4 million to over 4.6 billion. And between 2005 and 2010 alone, the number of internet users doubled, and was expected to surpass two billion in 2010. Looking back it looks like a complete revolution has taken place. But if you are old enough to have fully experienced this period, you’ll remember that it just felt that developments were progressing fast but also very smoothly.
So what can this ICT revolution teach us for the application of solar energy? Everybody loves solar energy, but the cost is still an obstacle. It’s not surprising so few people in the world are using photovoltaic solar energy. Will this cost-issue be solved soon? Will there be a revolution?
Looking into the future, ten years from now, the answer is a resounding yes. Let’s assume a conservative 5% cost and price reduction year on year from now on for Pv Systems or solar electricity. This calculation is based on technology improvements, economies of scale and other optimizations such as reduced transportation cost etc. And this is a conservative estimate, since in the past 10 years the yearly cost reductions have been higher. The astonishing and convincing result is that within ten years solar energy, even in the less sunny northern European countries, will be available at around €0.15/kWh. Compare this to today’s current cost of electricity from the grid! And would any sane person predict that the cost of fossil fuel-derived grid electricity will decrease over the coming decade? In the sunnier Southern European countries the cost will be even less than €0,10/kWh within this period. So, who then will still want to buy grid-electricity when solar energy is half the cost?
In 10 years, solar energy will be competitive in all residential PV markets in at least Europe and America. And in 20 years solar energy will be so cheap it will be competitive in any application; residential, commercial and utility scale power plants. Solar cells and modules will be so cheap they will become available in any size, form and color. How will this impact our lives?
Since it will be attractive to generate solar energy from any roof, facade or even any indoor and outdoor surface absorbing (day)light, all industries and consumers will be thinking electric. Solar electricity will become available everywhere at low cost. Small and large scale convenient energy-storage solutions will make the availability of cheap (solar) electricity possible anytime and anywhere in and outside buildings.
Excess solar energy which you don't use immediately can be saved for later, or for charging your electric vehicle - with this cheap solar energy, within 20 years the EV will be much cheaper to drive than an 'old timer' running on gasoline. And the car industry, already investing millions, will have kept up with this power revolution. Mass production will bring down the price of EVs to a level lower than the antiquated fossil fuel cars.
So, we’re looking forward to cheap sustainable energy for everybody around the world, an energy revolution, but has this revolution already started? The solar industry is growing like crazy. And this is not just due to its novelty or to a green commitment. Prices for solar systems are decreasing rapidly. Because of the scale of current investment (much of it Chinese), industrial companies and banks can predict that solar panels and systems will soon be produced competitively, and without depending on subsidies or government support. The investors are not all opportunists either, or crazy. With hundreds of millions being invested today in building new manufacturing plant, the global industry already includes hundreds of manufacturers. They all want to have a share of a market which will take a substantial percentage of the world energy mix within 10-20 years.
And then suddenly, in twenty years, solar energy will be there as if it had existed forever. It will be competitive and it will seem completely normal to everyone to rely on solar systems. Today, we may not see a solar revolution. But, we are already part of a solar evolution - and it’s developing fast.
Posts tonen met het label solar industry. Alle posts tonen
Posts tonen met het label solar industry. Alle posts tonen
woensdag 20 juli 2011
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
Who will help PV development more: the green or the greedy?
"We will enable, help and secure the development of a sustainable future with clean energy supply for our children". Does this sound familiar to you? The websites of the solar investors and sustainable and solar energy funds all declare this great ambition. But, in the end, what counts are the financial numbers. "We need at least 12% ROI on the project. Certainly with all the risks involved". There is this great chorus line, saying "it’s all about the money...".
Better than 2% at your savings account
Have you ever seen a solar fund promoting an offer of a 6-7% guaranteed return on your deposit? It would still be a much better alternative to the 2% on your savings account at the bank, and I bet there is a great future for such an initiative. No one would become very rich, but it would enable solar project developments for private people at a decent return. It would make green and clean solar power development attractive for many people.
The green or the greedy?
Investors could be put aside as greedy people/companies. But the reality is that they accounted for maybe even around 50% of the global market volume and development in the last 10 years. Without the ‘greedy’ investors probably only a handful of large scale projects would have been built. This means the global market demand would have been much smaller. And the market volumes and industry dynamics would have been different. Module and system prices would definitely have been substantially higher. If it was just aimed at the green sustainable-inspired people and customers, the global PV market development would be focused on residential PV applications, on many small PV systems, with just a few exceptions for companies looking for a green image. So, who will help the development of the solar industry and markets more - the green or the greedy people?
Higher returns now lead to quicker competitive prices
The higher the returns offered to investors now, the faster the global market and industry will grow, and the sooner module and system prices will decline due to economies of large scale production; and the sooner green people can buy their clean energy at low prices. Besides this, the investors and financial institutions and banks will get used to solar as an easy, reliable, predictable, trusted, low maintenance technology - a reliable asset with interesting returns. This will be helpful when solar energy becomes competitive and when further market development requires the involvement of big companies, investors and banks.
Global energy hunger
The more investors are facilitated with good returns [RJW1] on their large scale projects now, the faster the industry will grow; and the sooner this will lead to lower production costs and, finally, competitive price systems. Thus, we can sooner reach grid parity where incentives are no longer needed at all. And the investors will have found out that solar PV is a superb, reliable and sustainable asset for further investments, even if the returns are less. They will stay in this growth business because the world’s energy hunger can only increase.
Money makes the PV world go around
Money does not only make the world go round. With solar energy, higher subsidized returns speed up achievement of grid-parity, where government support is no longer needed. A 'quick money shot' with good returns will fire up the PV market and keep it running forever. This 20 year period of FiT-payments will still be ‘nothing’ compared to the incentives, tax advantages and environmental tax exceptions that the fossil fuel industry received over the last 70 years. The PV industry will be like a gasoline engine. The initial ignition takes some (money) fuel. But once it runs, it’s hard to stop. And with solar PV it will never stop as the energy source is infinite and the cost competitive.
Better than 2% at your savings account
Have you ever seen a solar fund promoting an offer of a 6-7% guaranteed return on your deposit? It would still be a much better alternative to the 2% on your savings account at the bank, and I bet there is a great future for such an initiative. No one would become very rich, but it would enable solar project developments for private people at a decent return. It would make green and clean solar power development attractive for many people.
The green or the greedy?
Investors could be put aside as greedy people/companies. But the reality is that they accounted for maybe even around 50% of the global market volume and development in the last 10 years. Without the ‘greedy’ investors probably only a handful of large scale projects would have been built. This means the global market demand would have been much smaller. And the market volumes and industry dynamics would have been different. Module and system prices would definitely have been substantially higher. If it was just aimed at the green sustainable-inspired people and customers, the global PV market development would be focused on residential PV applications, on many small PV systems, with just a few exceptions for companies looking for a green image. So, who will help the development of the solar industry and markets more - the green or the greedy people?
Higher returns now lead to quicker competitive prices
The higher the returns offered to investors now, the faster the global market and industry will grow, and the sooner module and system prices will decline due to economies of large scale production; and the sooner green people can buy their clean energy at low prices. Besides this, the investors and financial institutions and banks will get used to solar as an easy, reliable, predictable, trusted, low maintenance technology - a reliable asset with interesting returns. This will be helpful when solar energy becomes competitive and when further market development requires the involvement of big companies, investors and banks.
Global energy hunger
The more investors are facilitated with good returns [RJW1] on their large scale projects now, the faster the industry will grow; and the sooner this will lead to lower production costs and, finally, competitive price systems. Thus, we can sooner reach grid parity where incentives are no longer needed at all. And the investors will have found out that solar PV is a superb, reliable and sustainable asset for further investments, even if the returns are less. They will stay in this growth business because the world’s energy hunger can only increase.
Money makes the PV world go around
Money does not only make the world go round. With solar energy, higher subsidized returns speed up achievement of grid-parity, where government support is no longer needed. A 'quick money shot' with good returns will fire up the PV market and keep it running forever. This 20 year period of FiT-payments will still be ‘nothing’ compared to the incentives, tax advantages and environmental tax exceptions that the fossil fuel industry received over the last 70 years. The PV industry will be like a gasoline engine. The initial ignition takes some (money) fuel. But once it runs, it’s hard to stop. And with solar PV it will never stop as the energy source is infinite and the cost competitive.
donderdag 16 juni 2011
Solar module prices come down another 20% in just five months
Growing industry and government budget cuts force prices to drop
Solar modules prices have dropped by another 20% during the first five months of 2011. Top-brand modules are now available at $1,40 per watt and sometimes even less. Half-way through 2008, the sales price still stood at around $4 per watt. Why are prices plummeting and where will this end?
A decade of continuous growth
Last year, the global solar PV market grew an astonishing 100%. For any industry in the midst of a global economic crisis, this is not a bad result. And it was not the first time this spectacular growth had occurred - it first happened back in 2008. Only in 2009 did the global crisis hit the PV market, slowing growth down to around 15%.
Since 2001, the global PV market showed an average growth rate of 50% of new installations per year. No wonder the solar industrial players invested heavily in capacity expansion. After a decade of continuous growth, it does not look as if there is any turbulence ahead for the solar PV market. After all, governments will continue to seek sustainable energy solutions and fossil fuel independence. And as for the end user, the majority would definitely prefer clean solar energy if available at competitive prices.
Still more industry entrants
Even more stimulated by the glorious market demand figures we saw in 2010, the solar industry invested heavily in capacity expansion. This will bring down cost and sales prices, helping it to reach the holy grail of grid parity even sooner.
But, besides the rapid growth of the existing industry leaders, many new players have been attracted too by the growth figures and market forecasts. New small companies and very large (Asian) corporations have started to produce silicon, cells and solar modules. And why not? Market saturation is nowhere to be seen. It does not look as if the solar energy market will stop growing some day - apart from the odd temporary slow-down.
Government budget cuts
At the same time, governments of leading markets saw budget claims for Feed-in-Tariffs in 2010 go through the roof. In the light of general budget cuts and economic problems, Germany, France, the Czech Republic and Italy therefore decided to cut back the FiTs and other grants for 2011. The purpose of this move is to cool down the explosive market growth and excessive budget claims. Not only did they lower the tariffs (subsidies); the revised schemes mean that smaller and roof systems are favoured over big ground-mounted power plants.
The subsidy reductions are forcing the solar industry to reduce cost and system prices in order to remain attractive to its customers, ensuring it still provides an attractive return on investment. Besides, the shift from fewer large-scale power plants to more smaller-scale systems will be a more costly job in terms of sales efforts.
Governments cutting budgets to cool market growth
The result of a rapidly expanding industry on the one hand, coupled with budget cuts on the other have led to a rapid fall in prices. The industry is growing at full speed, and facing more competition in the major leading markets. Germany, France, the Czech Republic, Italy, etc. are being cooled down with seriously lower incentives. This parallel development produces a cocktail which will bring about a rapid price decline for solar modules, inverters and total solar PV systems....
In order to control further budget cuts, these countries will calculate their FiT levels for 2012 in accordance with market growth in 2011 or on solar module price development. It is even possible that these leading markets will (slightly) shrink in 2011 (Germany, the Czech Republic, Italy) compared to the record year of 2010. Although the dynamics are hard to forecast, the promising emerging markets (India, China, etc) are yet not big enough to make up for any slower growth in these leading markets. Nevertheless, with system prices going down rapidly, it might very well be that we can expect another year of global growth.
Spiral of declining prices
Of course, new markets are popping up. But governments closely follow the leading markets, introducing FiTs and incentives according to the latest market prices. In the UK, the incentives for large-scale power plants were drastically cut, even less then a year after their introduction.
Inevitably, this spiral of developments leads to (rapidly) falling system and component prices. And the dynamics are hard to control. The existing leading industry players will fight hard (i.e. lower their prices) to capture and increase their share of the market. New players will fight hard to enter the market. And if the market continues to grow substantially, governments will lower the FiTs even more in order to control the overall budgets.
Where and when will this spiral end? Well, not until solar system prices have reached a point where subsidies, grants or FiTs are no longer necessary to make solar energy competitive with other energy sources. And in some markets, this is already a close call for certain market segments. Germany and Italy, with high electricity prices, are serious candidates to reach grid parity for residential customers next year.
New era of strong growth on the horizon
Industry leaders and experts forecast that solar modules will be sold for under $1 per watt three years from now. An average decline of module prices of around 7-10% per year. Large solar PV systems and power plants could then become feasible at $2 per watt. This will lead to competitive prices for solar electricity, without any government support.
Inevitably, this development will change the business models. In the near future, solar PV systems will be sold as energy and cost saving devices - whereas currently they are sold as profit generators based on government subsidies. With regular electricity prices likely to increase, and as solar system prices continue to decline in the near future, an infinite market is appearing on the horizon. The solar industry can prepare itself for an era of continuous tremendous market growth. But first it needs to fight to get itself through the coming years.
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